Sunday 3 October 2021

Fuel panic-buying: a prisoner's dilemma for the 21st century

The panic buying of fuel and subsequent shortages in the UK have given the Prisoner's Dilemma a new political twist, and it turns out that modern free market economics has a real problem with one of the key political tools of right-wing populists.

The fuel-buying version of the prisoner's dilemma goes like this: imagine a situation where a fuel station supplies 100 customers. There is a temporary slowdown in supply, such that if all 100 customers top up their tanks immediately, fuel will completely run out, whereas if they all wait until their tanks are nearly empty then there will be plenty for all. Now picture one of those drivers (X) whose tank is half full. There are 4 possible scenarios:

A) X refrains from filling up yet, as does everyone else, so supply is maintained. 

B) X fills up but everyone else refrains, so again supply is maintained,. 

C) X refrains from filling up but nobody else does and the fuel runs out, leaving X in real difficulties.

D) X fills up, as does everyone else, and the fuel runs out, but at least X's tank is (temporarily) full.

How X behaves (assuming they are a perfectly rational being) will depend on her/his degree of trust in others. If she/he believes that everyone else will behave with a social conscience and refrain from filling up until they need to, then unless they are an exceptionally selfish person (scenario B) they will refrain from filling up also (scenario A). However if X does not trust their fellow citizens then they will assume it is a choice between scenarios C) and D), in which case, clearly they should opt for D) and make sure they top up immediately. Which means that other drivers (seeing X at the fuel station) are more likely to make the same calculation, and the fuel runs out.

The problem is that a key technique right-wing populists discovered long ago is to turn citizens against each other, increase polarisation and decrease trust in order to scapegoat minorities and harden ones political base. In the US the polarisation is of Trumpers v never-Trumpers, but here in the UK we have, if anything, gone one better: brexshitters v remoaners. The referendum may have been years ago, but Johnson and his like have, if anything, sought to fuel the fires of mutual distrust by condemning the negativity of anyone who opposed Brexit. They did this with other issues too, such as the wearing of masks. To a large extent the UK government abandoned responsibility for containing the Covid epidemic some time ago, suggesting that it was down to 'individual common sense' to decide how the population should behave. Which was of course a recipe for turning us citizens against each other, but let the government off the hook.

So what is the relevance to the fuel shortages? Well, we have in this country (as, I believe in the US) a higher degree of mutual distrust than I can ever remember. People are quicker to get angry with each other over matters of what used to be seen as abstruse political jargon (before 2016 who even knew the European Supreme Court existed?) and certainly less willing to trust in each other's common decency and social conscience than ever before.

No, nowadays it's everyone for themselves and to hell with the [brexshitters, remoaners, anti-vaxxers, snowflakes, etc etc]. And the problem is, without a degree of mutual trust and social cohesion the modern sophisticated just-in-time supply chains collapse rather easily.

Friday 12 February 2021

Could it possibly be time to just stop weighing the pig?

About the only upside I can see to the covid pandemic is that it has thrown a lot of things up in the air and forced us to reexamine some long-held assumptions. Nowhere is this more the case than in education. For instance, with home-schooling, millions of parents have been confronted with the reality of getting students through the post-Govian National Curriculum, and have come to see what a soulless task it is in some areas. It is no coincidence that fronted bloody adverbials have come under such attack and ridicule over recent months.

Even more significant though is the way that the GCSE fiasco last year caused many people to ask themselves quite fundamental questions about the whole purpose of that tier of national examinations. There have been those who have been posing those questions for years of course, but until the pandemic they were dismissed as soft liberals seeking to avoid accountability for schools. Now, at last, the question is being seen as a genuinely valid one - should we have GCSEs at all?

I do not propose to weigh into that debate here, because who cares what an ex-Head thinks anyway? Instead, I would like to pose an even more fundamental question: is it time to take the focus off weighing the pig entirely? I recognise that this is a rather radical question, and easily pilloried, because for as long as a national education system has existed, the idea of testing, and ranking, the children within it has been central. Indeed, tests are often seen as the end product or even the purpose of education. Each key stage (or, Key Stage, more recently) has always been defined by some sort of terminal assessment that sorts the wheat from the chaff and determines subsequent progress, whether these be the 11 plus, O-levels/GCSEs or A levels. And it is important to remember that, in the UK at least, these tests are not seen as diagnostic (used to determine the sensible next stage) but hierarchical (used to decide who deserves to progress to a higher tier of the next stage and who does not). Tests are there to be passed or failed.

This thinking permeates all of our attitudes about education, so that judgements about schools and teachers depend on them as well. These judgements too have become hierarchical rather than diagnostic: an inspection of a school determines whether it has passed or failed, and its place on exam league tables decides whether it is better or worse than others. And that, of course, determines the popularity of the school and hence the nature of its intake, because the market is king.

But surely this is inevitable, isn't it? Life is about success and failure, and education exists in the real world, not in a Utopian fantasy of lets-be-nice-to-everyone, doesn't it? Hence the need for those Govian watchwords: toughness and rigour.

That is a reasonable argument in a sense, and it derives from a fundamental human competitiveness that has driven progress for centuries. The problem is, it is an approach to both education and life itself that is becoming more and more problematic, and is being increasingly questioned. It is not just that the price of failure within such a system is becoming more of an issue - endemic drug addiction, the creation of an underclass, and right-wing populism might all be traced back to some people's sense of having lost the race, and the bleak life-chances for those who fail within the education system certainly can be - it is also that people are beginning to understand that competitiveness and meritocratic hierarchies don't always yield the best results. Forward-looking and successful businesses now put far greater emphasis on collaboration, teamwork and creativity than on goal-driven competitiveness.

There is another grave price to be paid for the competition-focused approach to education, namely the effect it has on the curriculum. I used to work in ILEA, and was part of what now seems like a renaissance of thinking about education. The focus shifted from a knowledge-based curriculum (recite the dates of accession of the Kings and Queens of England) to an enquiry-based one (examine these historical sources and ask how reliable and/or biased they might be). An enquiry-based curriculum was much harder to test, and so this approach led to the development of innovative approaches such as Assessment for Learning and 100% coursework GCSEs. However the problem for Gove and his like was that systems like AfL were no good for putting the screws on teachers or 'bog-standard' comprehensives, so back we went to a nice, simple, factual (and in my view largely pointless) knowledge-based curriculum that could be tested in 'rigorous' exams and Key Stage assessments.

I wrote a post some time ago posing the question of whether education should be 'tough', and I think it is even more valid now. Another lesson that the pandemic has taught us is that notions of winning and losing are often illusory and unhelpful in this context. There have been, for instance, surprisingly few reports of people cheating or jumping the queue to get vaccinated. Why? Because it is largely irrelevant where you come in that particular race: nothing much is going to change for anyone until everybody else gets vaccinated too. It's an analogous situation to a group project in school, or a small start-up company in the real world: the performance of the group as a whole is far more important than any individual's position within that group.

And the point is, that sort of focus is actually much more likely to yield concrete beneficial effects in the real world than a dog-eat-dog, competition-focussed one. What is the point of beating your co-workers in every conceivable test, if your company goes bankrupt because of the whole teams' dysfunction?

In a sense, too, this is a pretty uncontroversial view for most teachers. There are very few who believe that the most effective learning comes when students are pitted against each other. Ask any teacher, or any inspector, to pick a lesson where learning was at its best and I can almost guarantee that they will choose one where students were working collaboratively rather than competitively. Not that there is anything intrinsically wrong with competitiveness (it is a natural impulse in young people), but we learn best when we spark ideas off other people, and we do that best when we are working with, rather than against them. The controversy comes when we start thinking about ways to measure how successful teachers (and schools) are being, and whether they are enhancing or damaging students' life chances. We need assessment for that, don't we? And assessment means competition, surely. Which means tests of some sort and establishing of rank orders.

Well no, not necessarily. In the last paragraph I actually referenced an assessment that teachers and inspectors carry out all the time: the assessment of the quality of learning. Because that for me is the crucial measure of success of any education. And note, I said the quality of learning, not teaching. Where students are empowered with the ability to learn, to question, to be creative and to work with others they are given a gift that is of incalculable value, not just to themselves but to society as a whole. If you were setting up an innovative start-up, would you prefer somebody with those skills, or somebody who had used more fronted adverbials in a piece of creative writing than any other student and scored nineteen out of twenty in a test of the dates of accession of the Kings and Queens of England?

Saturday 16 January 2021

Trump's support is cratering - not because he tried to mount an insurrection, but because he failed

 I wrote an essay years ago entitled Radicalisation and the Fifth Column that threatens to undermine America from within, but though it looks prescient today, I don't think I had the faintest idea what was going to ensue once Donald Trump was elected president. That essay was about the (now very tame looking) move by Tea Party senators to use a government lockdown to stymie Obama's healthcare reforms. In it I argued that Ted Cruz, a strident voice at the time, represented a sort of radicalisation that had its roots in the Dirty Harry/Hans Solo/John McClane trope of Hollywood action men. Hollywood, I argued, has long promoted an image of a maverick lone wolf who alone can see through the corruption and ineptitude of officialdom and indeed government itself. They therefore choose which laws to follow and which to break, and in doing so are lauded as heroes. A large swathe of Americans, I argued, have become radicalised by this incessant diet of anti-establishment machismo to the extent where they regard destructive rulebreakers as more worthy of respect than the forces of law and order themselves.

Well, it seems now as if that process of radicalisation was both deeper and broader than I suspected at the time. My tone then was one of wry amusement at the quirks of a society that spent too much of its time watching movies. Ted Cruz and his like seemed a bit of a joke - an irrelevance in the brave new post-racial world that Obama's election had summoned up. How wrong could I be?

Trump's presidency, viewed from over the pond, was disturbing for two main reasons. The first (and truly terrible) reason was the substance of what he was doing - reinforcing white supremacy and brutal prejudice against immigrants and Muslims; destroying international collaborative structures; and giving aid and succour to dictators across the world. The second reason was almost as bad though. In all this time it was clear that for all his stupidity, narcissism, misogyny, ineptitude and racism, nearly half of the population of the USA liked what he was doing. And then, when he capped his four years with the most callously ignorant mismanagement of a global pandemic, the response of 74 million of his fellow Americans was to attempt to give him four more years as president.

And then the final act. An attempted insurrection that, had it not been hamstrung by its own ineptitude, could have led to Trump being installed as permanent dictator (he often promised to his rallies that he would serve 8 or maybe 12 more years). Shortly after the failed invasion of the Capitol, Trump's allies began turning against him and his popular support collapsed, to the point where (according to Pew) it now stands at a mere 29%. Leaving aside that even that figure represents near enough 90 million Americans who still reckon Trump is the man for the job, one might assume that this is evidence of the US finally coming to its senses.

Well, yes and no. It is worth remembering that the defection of Trump's allies was nowhere near immediate. Even after being shut away for their own protection whilst an unruly mob stormed the Capitol, 147 Republican lawmakers continued the attempt to defy the will of the People by voting against the certification of the electoral votes.

Since then the mood has unquestionably changed though. Ten Republicans voted to impeach and a growing number of senators are suggesting that they might even vote to convict. And in the wider population, though Trump's aggregated popularity still stands at 38% or so, it is plummeting at an unprecedented rate. One might assume that this is because of the emerging understanding of just how potentially terrifying the Capitol invasion was, and I am sure things like the death of Officer Sicknick have disgusted many. However I would argue that the main feature for Trump's falling popularity is not the realisation that he is a narcissistic sociopath (that surely was always obvious) but the fact that he is also a proven loser. 

Just for a moment imagine that the mob had seized and destroyed the electoral votes, had maybe taken some prominent Democrats and 'turncoat' Republicans hostage and had then been called off by Trump and instructed to hand their hostages over to the authorities. Imagine then that Trump had declared a state of emergency, cancelled the election results as fraudulent and instigated martial law (he has packed out the pentagon with sycophants and clearly has supporters in the armed forces, if not at the highest level).

The question is, would his popular support then have cratered? I am afraid to say that if anything it would have hardened. This would have been Trump definitively doing the thing his supporters had been praying he would - taking on the Swamp.

But his support has cratered, so why? I wrote a while back another (then tongue-in-cheek) essay, suggesting that the continued support for Trump could be explained by another Hollywood trope, the High School bully The thing is about bullies, while they reign supreme everybody wants to be on their side, but when get their comeuppance those same people turn against them. And maybe the explanation is as simple as that. For all the grand-guignol theatrics and the violence-and-hate-laden conspiracies, Trump's Great Awakening/Kraken Unleashed/Trust the Plan (other melodramatic terms are probably available) wannabe coup was a failure.

And in Hollywood, nobody likes a loser.

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